1) It might go seriously south, but it seems the internal issues in both Israel and the US will take some of the air out of actual motivation, as opposed to political posturing. That split between scab and wound.

2) The hyperbole around Trump is truly stratospheric, but he is not terribly organized, the bureaucracy will be in total meltdown against anything he tries. The Republican establishment is no more fond of him than the bureaucracy So there will be breakdowns, but more chaotic than organized. Hard to see how the Dems pull a rabbit out of the hat, on this one, but if they do, the vindictiveness will be far more organized and focused.

3) I suspect Ukraine won't make it through the fall. Quite simply the lack of electricity heading into winter will make the country unmanageable.

4) The UK/City is very good at remaining in the background and this will continue. It will be a few years before the dominos really start to reach them.

The propaganda about Russia does really deserve some objectivity. Russia had a reality check, with the fall of the Soviet Union that provides some hints of what the West is about to go through. For one thing, not only don't they need to conquer Europe territorially, given they have more than enough land and resources, a fairly optimistic population and this war against the West is giving them a credibility boost around the rest of th world.

So then consider what Europe is heading towards; Along with losing Russia as a market and source of resources, the whole progressive movement is making it ungovernable. Consider that both culture and civics are inherently conservative, as a social core around which society gravitates. While liberalism is like the young, relative to the old. They are heading out to conquer everything and think those old geezers are stuck in the mud no nothings. The problem is that they don't really have a viable center, other than everybody love everyone else, literally and figuratively. Which makes it all go Tower of Babel.

Anarchies of desire, versus tyrannies of judgement.

Then add that what Europe will be invaded by, is a bunch of irate, well armed, corrupt Ukrainians, that are going to be blaming the Europeans for their problems, whether because they were duped into the war, or they didn't give them enough support.

Those drones and rpgs will be deployed in ways that are not yet being considered.

Meanwhile the Russians will just be sitting back and laughing. For one thing, they are the only ones with the old Soviet standards to which the Ukrainian energy system is geared for.

Ten years from now, Europe will be more Russian and Chinese satellite, than American and it will all be economics, not war.