I don't see literacy as relevant to whether one is being used as a pawn.

I understand there is significant cultural animosity among Ukrainians, toward Russians, especially in light of Stalin and collectivization, but that would make them more susceptible to being used to irritating the Russians into overreach.

It really doesn't take much insight to realize it will lead to WW3, if the West comes to Ukraine's aid and so it should have been evident from the start this very likely wouldn't happen. Which means the Ukrainians were being set up for a fall.