I think the one point you are totally off, is the idea that Russia wants to take over any part of Europe.

Why? It didn't work with the Soviet Union and would be an enormous cost and drag on Russia.

Consider that Russia is an enormous geographic country, so they don't need the land or resources. They have a relatively small population, that wouldn't want to police a bunch of sulky Europeans.

The Europeans, by taking in large numbers of refugees from all the forever wars, getting cut off from Russian energy and cutting ties with China, at the behest of the US, are setting themselves up for third world status over the next century.

There is going to be a border wall, running down the center of what is now Ukraine and the east side, stretching across Asia, will be fairly prosperous, with the western side becoming increasingly lawless.

The armored Mercedes and tactical police vehicles will be in trouble, when the gangs have RPG's and drones.

It's called, "blowback."