I'm in the same position, as an outsider who has follwed the subject since my teens, in the 70's.

It has been as much or more a question of sociology, than consideration of objective probabilties.

The field where math is most broadly used is accounting, where they understand math is a tool, not God whispering in one's ear, so they know it can be used to obscure, as well as enlighten. So just writing in a figure and calling it dark money would be considered bad form.

The purpose of the intellect, as well as the imagination, is to project from what one's knows, in order to explore future possibilties. Even when we sleep, the mind keeps sorting through all its experiences.

It is wise though, to keep this in mind and not let the imagination get too far carried away, as the consequent reality check can be painful.